Fade the value rebound

In the past week, several readers have asked whether it's too late to be buying financials, value, and other cyclical stocks. In reply, I highlighted the recent Mark Hulbert column, "Value stocks now are beating growth by 10 points, but the easy money might be behind us", namely that the value/growth reversal may not necessarily have legs.

I analyzed value’s relative strength back to 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College professor Ken French. On average, a given month’s relative strength persisted for just one month. With holding periods lasting two or more months, value’s performance against growth was only randomly related to what came before...

So if you’re keeping score for these three instances in which value beat growth by as much as it has recently, there’s one case in which value relative strength continued, one in which it reversed itself, and one in which there was no trend one way or the other. Good luck extrapolating that into the future.

Here are some other reasons to fade the value rebound.

The full post can be found here.