Monday, October 25, 2010

Too much complacency

Just as the SPX sees a golden cross, sentiment measures aren't looking particular positive for equity bulls.

Last week I saw several posts in the blogosphere about stock market technicals breaking down. As well, sentiment measures seem to be indicating excessive complacency - which is contrarian bearish. AAII bullish sentiment is at 50%. Surveys of other measures also show signs of a crowded long in stocks and Mark Hulbert reported that the lastest Vickers report shows that corporate insiders are now selling.

Maybe the best warning for the bulls is when China's 9.6% growth rate is a disappointment, what other possible good news could propel the market higher?

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