I told you there would be volatility

Mid-week market update: I told you that there would be volatility (see Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility). In light of signs of stretched positioning, the prudent course of action for traders is to step to the sidelines.

 

Here are the different sources of volatility that are buffeting the markets.

 

The full post can be found here.

Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 17-Jan-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A time for caution

As the S&P 500 tests the 4900 level, it faces a number of key technical, top-down macro and fundamental challenges. These challenges are wildcards to the near-term path of stock prices and form the potential for volatility in the coming week.

From a technical perspective, some caution is warranted. We recently highlighted a short-term buy signal when NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO) recycled from oversold to neutral. The “take profits” tripwire for this trading signal occurs when NYMO reaches a positive reading, which occurred last Thursday. If you were tactically long the market, it’s time to reduce risk. Don’t try to be a hero.

 

 

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

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What are the contagion effects of China's wipeout?

The problems keep piling up in China. Weakening demographics, as her population shrank for a second consecutive year. Weak consumer spending. A record property downturn. Rising trade tensions.

The drip-drip-drip of these glitches culminated in a massive stock market wipeout as over US$6 trillion has been wiped from the combined capitalization of the Chinese and Hong Kong markets since the 2021 market peak. As an illustration of the depth of the carnage, the Hang Seng Index fell to test levels seen at the 1997 handover to China. Beijing responded with a plan to order State Owned Enterprises to use its offshore currency reserves, which is estimated to be 2-trillion yuan, or US$278 billion, to buy Chinese stocks to prop up the market. In addition, the PBoC announced a half-point cut to the required reserve ratio on February 5 to provide greater liquidity to the financial system.

 

 
For investors, the key question is what’s the effect of skidding stock prices in China and nearby Hong Kong on the rest of the world?

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

The market's upper BB roller coaster ride

Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been riding its upper Bollinger Band. Historically, upper BB rides haven't been all that bearish, but the current episode is occurring against a backdrop of negative RSI divergences.

 

 

While the S&P 500 may be on an upper BB ride, it promises to be a roller coaster.

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

Exhausted bears, tiring bulls

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 02-Jan-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Bearish capitulation

Last week, I suggested that the current market environment “argues for a buy the dip and sell the rip posture in trading”. When the S&P 500 fell a miniscule -1.8% on an peak-to-trough intraday basis, my models were registering signs of bearish exhaustion, which was a sign to buy the dip.
How could a -1.8% intraday drawdown spark such oversold extremes? One inter-market clue came from Asia, where Chinese and Hong Kong stocks cratered on bad news out of China. The Hang Seng Index skidded -4.1% on Wednesday to a new 52-week low, and there wasn’t a single advancing issue.

 
Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader found that such episodes tended to resolve bullishly. It was therefore no surprise that the Hong Kong market rebounded the next day, and so did the S&P 500.

 The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

At least 29 reasons to be bullish

Exhibitions of powerful price momentum are rare. Since the market bottom in 2002, there have been eight occasions when the percentage of S&P 500 above their 50 dma has surged from below 15% to over 90% in a brief period. That latest episode occurred when stock prices soared off the bottom in October 2023. These price surges were usually resolved in either a short-term consolidation or setback, but the S&P 500 was invariably higher a year later with a 100% success rate.

I conducted a bottom-up scan of stock charts to look for technical uptrends and strong breakout formations. The scan isn’t meant to create a complete list of stocks with bullish technical outlooks. 

My evaluation framework is based on two components: the simple analysis of a weekly chart of the stock in the top panel, and the relative performance of the stock against the S&P 500 in the bottom panel. U chose the weekly chart as a way of filtering out the noise from daily price movements and better show the intermediate price trend. Ideally, both should be either in uptrends or breaking out on both an absolute and relative basis.

 

I found at least 29 charts with bullish technical patterns, none of which should be considered to be buy recommendations without further individual fundamental due diligence. Taken together, I came away with a stronger conviction of intermediate bullishness for the stock market, sector and industries. As well, this bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.
 

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

Why this should be a shallow correction

Mid-week market update: I had been expecting a choppy January for stock prices, and current market action has not disappointed. Investors came into 2024 all bulled up, but rising rates eventually spooked stock prices. It all came to a head with Fed Governor Waller's speech, in which he stated that the Fed is pivoting to an easing cycle, but the market expectations may have gotten ahead of themselves.

The S&P 500 has weakened into a support zone, while the 10-year Treasury yield is nearing a resistance zone. 

Here are some reasons why I believe that the market will experience a shallow correction.

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

Beware of the riptide market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “neutral” on 02-Jan-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

As good as it gets?

As the S&P 500 tests overhead resistance at its all-time high after staging a cup and handle upside breakout, it’s experiencing negative 5-week RSI divergences that have the fingerprints of a near-term top. Is this as good as it gets, at least for now?

 The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

Don't fight the Fed (or the macro trend)

As the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with the 4% level and the yield curve steepens from its inverted condition, it’s worthwhile to keep in mind that the universe is unfolding as it should. Monetary conditions are tight, inflation is moderating, the jobs market, though tight, is weakening, and the economy is chugging along with no signs of a recession. Various Fed speakers have cautioned that while the inflation fight isn’t finished, the hiking cycle is over and the next likely interest rate move is down.

 
These conditions argue for a bull steepening of the yield curve, where bond yields fall while the curve steepens, and a conducive environment for stock prices. Why fight the Fed and the macro trend?
 

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

A time for patience

Mid-week market update: There is a time for an aggressive posture in positioning and there is a time for patience. This is a time for investors to be patient.

 

In the aftermath of the rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 is consolidating its gains after breaking out through resistance at 4600 to form a cup and handle breakout. However, it was rejected at all-time high resistance and it's now working off an overbought condition, as evidenced by the 5-week RSI. The VVIX to VIX ratio, which has led past tactical peaks in stock prices, peaked out just before the January highs, but the lack of a negative divergence in this ratio is constructive inasmuch as this is not a signal of a major top. I interpret current conditions as a consolidation within an uptrend.

 

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

A pause that refreshes the uptrend

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 20-Nov-2023)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A pause in momentum

Call it what you want. A breadth thrust. A momentum surge. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks surged from below 20% to over 90% in a brief two months. In the past, such episodes have usually signaled the start of bull markets. At the same time, these overbought conditions have also resolved in short-term periods of consolidation or pullbacks.

 

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

What growth stock price action reveal about rate expectations

The S&P 500 staged an upside breakout in December through a cup and handle pattern but it was rejected at all-time-high resistance, which is a somewhat disappointing development.

 

 
Instead of worrying about whether it can rally through resistance, here is another index that staged a cup and handle breakout, but to all-time-highs. It’s the NYSE FANG Plus Index, which represents megacap growth stocks, which has been the market leadership. The catch is its relative strength is faltering and its retreated to test a key relative resistance turned support level. Further relative weakness could signal a loss of megacap growth leadership.

 
The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

The easy money has been made

Mid-week market update: I know that this is a trite expression, but the easy money has been made. The rally off the October bottom has been astounding. My trading model was fortunate enough to spot the exact day of the bottom when insiders started buying an oversold market. The rally enjoyed further tailwinds in the form of a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. The trading model took a brief hiatus in November and re-entered on the long side. It took profits when the S&P 500 violated its 10 dma.

 

The rally off the October bottom was driven by falling Treasury yields, which also violated its 10 dma. While my inner investor remains equity bullish, my inner trader is far more cautious.

The full post can be found here.

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.

A review of our 2023 track record

Here is a review of our 2023 track record, starting with the Trend Asset Allocation Model. As a reminder, the trend model applies trend following techniques to a variety of global equities and commodities to arrive at a composite score that yields a buy, hold, or sell signal for equities. We’ve had an out-of-sample record of weekly signals since December 2021.
 
I constructed a model portfolio that either overweights or underweights the S&P 500 by 20% against a 60/40 benchmark of 60% SPY and 40% IEF based on trend model signals. The model portfolio had another good year with a total return of 17.6%, which was ahead of the 60/40 benchmark of 16.7%.
 
As the accompanying chart shows, the long-term track record of the model portfolio showed almost equity-like returns with balanced fund-like risk (see full details here).

My trading model had a good year. The model portfolio of the trend model was up 28.9% excluding dividends, which was ahead of the S&P 500 capital return of 24.2% (see full details here).

Beat the price increase

We are announcing a 5% price increase on subscriptions, effective February 1, 2024. Existing subscribers will be grandfathered at their current rates.

If you haven't subscribed, click this link to beat the price increase.