A market beating Trend Model, and what it's saying now

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Neutral*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



A Trend Model update
Let me start by wishing all of my Canadian friends a Happy Thanksgiving weekend.

A post last week (see A 5+ year report card of our asset allocation Trend Model) brought forth a number of questions, and some new subscribers. To briefly recap that post, I have been publishing the signals of my Trend Model since 2013. A simulated portfolio which varied the equity allocation based on those out-of-sample signals significantly beat a passive 60/40 benchmark, and on a consistent basis. In particular, the simulated portfolio was able to cushion some of the drawdowns during bearish equity episodes. The study was a proof of concept that the Trend Model can add value to an asset allocation process.

This week, we answer the following questions:

• What is the basis for the Trend Model
• What is it saying now?
• How does it react to news like the US-China preliminary agreement?

The full post can be found here.

Time to buy Yom Kippur?

Mid-week market update: There is a trader's adage, "Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur". As many in the Wall Street community are Jewish, staying out of the stock market during the Jewish high holidays may make some sense. Jewish traders and investors wind down at rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, and return after Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement, which is today.

Indeed, this year's market weakness began just around Rosh Hashanah. Moreover, the market's decline was halted yesterday right at trend line support, and rallied today.

Is it time to buy Yom Kippur.

The full post can be found here.

A 5+ year report card of our asset allocation Trend Model

For years, I have been publishing the readings of my Trend Model on a weekly basis. As a reminder, the Trend Model is a composite model of trend following models as applied to global stock prices around the world, as well as commodity prices.

The model has three signals:

• Bullish: When there is a clear upwards, or reflationary, global trend
• Bearish: When there is a clear downwards, or deflationary, global trend
• Neutral: When the trend signals are not discernible

The first derivative of the Trend Model, i.e. whether the signal is getting stronger or weaker, and combined with some overbought/oversold indicators, has performed admirably as a high turnover trading model (see My Inner Trader and this ungated version for non-subscribers). However, I have never produced a full report card for the Trend Model. While the actual signal dates were always available on the website, I never got around to compiling the performance record because I was always tied up on other projects, and the task never got to the top of the pile.

After several repeated requests from readers, here is the report card of the Trend Model. I want to make clear that this study represents the real-time track record of actual out-of-sample signals. These are not backtested. The results were solid, and the analysis was also revealing about what an investor should expect when using this model for asset allocation.

The full post can be found here.

The Art of the Deal (with Chinese characteristics)

Our trade war factor has been heating up, though readings remain in neutral. A secondary index (red line) measures Sheldon Adelson's Macau casinos operator LVS against other gaming stocks (inverted). As Adelson is a major Republican donor, and the casino licenses expire in 2022, the licenses represent another form of backdoor pressure that Beijing can apply to trade relations.

Chinese and American negotiators are scheduled to meet again on Thursday, October 10 for another round of trade negotiations. There have been conciliatory gestures on both sides, but what are the chances of a deal?

The full post can be found here.

Whatever happened to the Momentum Massacre?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



An update on the Momentum Massacre
Remember the Momentum Massacre? Too many investors were in a crowded short in the stock market. The cautiousness was manifesting itself in the price momentum factor, which was showing up in low volatility, low beta, defensive, and value stocks. The crowded short and long momentum trade began to unwind in late August, and accelerated when the SPX staged an upside breakout from its trading range at 2960 in early September.

The reversal was dramatic enough that JPM quant Marko Kolanovic called it a "once in a decade trade" (per CNBC). He made the case that both hedge fund and institutional positioning was too cautious, and a short-covering rally would spark a stampede by the slow moving but big money institutional behemoths to buy beta. Moreover, the reversal could also be a signal for a long awaited turn from growth to value investing.

Since then, returns to the price momentum factor has stabilized and begun to turn up again. It is time for an update.

More importantly, our analysis of the returns to differing factors and sectors is revealing of likely future market direction.

The full post can be found here.

How deep a pullback?

Mid-week market update: Regular readers will know that I have been relatively cautious on the stock market outlook for several weeks, and my inner trader has been short the market since September 13, 2019 when the SPX was over 3000. The index violated the 50 dma, broke support at 2960 and filled the gap at 2940-2960 yesterday. The decline was sparked by a miss on ISM Manufacturing PMI, which Jeroen Blokland pointed out is closely correlated to stock prices.

Lost in the bearish stampede was the observation of IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson that Markit M-PMI had been strong; ISM had overstated growth during the 2016-18 period; and ISM is maybe understating growth now.

Divergence is possibly related to ISM membership skewed towards large multinationals. IHS Markit panel is representative mix of small, medium and large (and asks only about US operations, so excludes overseas facilities)

Is this just an over-reaction, or the start of a major pullback?

The full post can be found here.



Our trading track record
As a reminder, we correctly flashed a "sell short" signal on September 13, 2019. Just to show that the signal was not just an isolated incident, the chart below depicts the out-of-sample record of our trading model (see this link for the complete calculation methodology).

If you haven't subscribed, you can subscribe to our service here.

What to watch for in Friday's Jobs Report

BLS will be publish the September Jobs Report this Friday. This report will be important for a number of reasons, and it will answer some key questions for investors and policy makers.

First, the unemployment rate has been troughing. If history is any guide, a rising unemployment rate after a trough has been signals of recessions. This was documented in the Sahm Rule, which was developed as a way to trigger automatic stabilizers and a real-time recession signal.

The Sahm Rule triggers a signal "When 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 pct points". A similar technique is also used at iMarket Signals as a recession warning. Currently, there is no recession in the forecast.

The full post can be found here.

What would an Elizabeth Warren Presidency look like?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



Discounting a Warren Presidency
It began with two respected polls of Iowa and New Hampshire voters which showed Elizabeth Warren leading Joe Biden and the rest of the field for the Democrats` race for president, Last week, a national poll reported that Warren caught the previous front runner Biden by 27% to 25%, Wall Street has started to become unsettled at the prospect of a Warren nomination. A Washington Post article indicates that there is only concern, but no panic:

Wall Street is sounding the alarm over Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s rise in the Democratic presidential race, as investors start to grapple with the possibility the industry scourge secures her party's nomination.

One investor joked that the stock market wouldn't even open if the Massachusetts senator became president; a segment on CNBC featured the idea that married couples could get divorced rather than be subjected to Warren's "wealth tax."

For now, the rising nerves are mostly evident in chatter. There's an emerging consensus that a Warren presidency would hurt the stock market -- yet there’s little evidence that investors are pricing in the risk.

"From a pure markets perspective, a Warren nomination hardly seemed 'priced in,'" Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group writes. He offers a few theories why that's the case: The election remains far away; Warren could be seen as a weaker Trump foe; or that Warren will moderate her pitch if she secures the nomination. "In any event, buckle up."

Warren`s odds of securing the nomination at PredictIt has soared in the last few days. This presents the picture of two main contenders. Warren and Biden have left the rest of the field behind. (For the uninitiated, the PredictIt market allows participants to buy and sell contracts based on events. If that event occurs, the contract pays out at $1.)

Expect the markets to begin to price in the prospect of a Warren win in the days and weeks ahead. For investors, it is time to consider the implications of a Warren White House.

The full post can be found here.

Where have you gone, Vol-a-tility?

Mid-week market update: I have been writing in these pages about the remarkable muted equity market volatility. Indeed, Luke Kawa observed on Monday that realized volatility had fallen to historical lows.

Recent developments indicate that volatility may be about to return to the markets. This reminds me of the lyrics of a song that I vaguely remember from my youth:

Where have you gone, Vol-a-tility?
A nation turns its eyes to you...
Woo woo woo...

The full post can be found here.

Why I am cautious on US equities

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



The bull and bear cases
In light of my recent cautious views, I have had a number of intense discussions with readers about the equity outlook for the next 3-6 months.  I would like to explain my reasoning by analyzing the bull and bear cases.

The full post can be found here.

A predictable no surprise market

Mid-week market update: Subscribers received an alert last Friday that I had turned tactically cautious on the market. So far, this has been a fairly predictable market with few surprises.

Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges documented how stock prices have been during FOMC days when the SPX closed at a 20-day high the day before. That's because the market had risen in anticipation of a positive announcement from the Fed, and the reaction is at best a coin toss.

Today's roller coaster market action was no surprise.

The full post can be found here.

3 supply shocks could derail the economy

As the market reacts the weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities, the level of anxiety is mounting. Forbes published an article on Sunday entitled "Attacks on Saudi Arabia are a recipe for $100 oil".

Bloomberg that this represents the biggest disruption to global oil supply since the Iraqi 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

As visions of the 1974 Arab Oil Embargo and the ensuing recession dance in traders' heads, this is a timely reminder that the FOMC is meeting this week. Should the supply curtailment become prolonged, how should policy makers react to supply shocks? As well, there is a case to be made that the world is facing more than just one supply shock.

The full post can be found here.

Is this the long awaited value investing revival?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Neutral*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



Is value investing back?
Have some pity on the long suffering value investing. The value style has lagged growth investing for so long that almost a generation of investors have only known about growth and FAANG stocks. The style enjoyed a recent short and short revival. Is this the start of a long awaited reversal?

Let us consider the pros and cons.

The full post can be found here.

Market breakout = FOMO surge?

Mid-week market update: Last week's upside breakout through resistance was impressive. Since then, the market has consolidated above the breakout level, but a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) rally has yet to materialize. In the past, such surges have been accompanied by a series of "good overbought"  5-day RSI readings, signs of buying stampedes from TRIN, only to see the rally stall when the 14-day RSI becomes oversold.

Will the upside breakout lead to a FOMO surge? Let us consider the possibilities.

The full post can be found here.

Fun with quant: Pure and naive factors

A reader alerted me to a CNBC report of a bullish analysis by Bespoke's Paul Hickey:

Bespoke Investment’s Paul Hickey believes a market hot streak is unfolding.

The independent market researcher is building his bullish case by zeroing in on the Citi Economic Surprise Index, which is built to measure optimism in the economy.

In the week ending Friday, the index flipped into positive after spending more than 100 days in negative territory. Hickey contends the move suggests investors are feeling more confident about the economy’s direction, so there’s a good chance stocks will rip higher.

“There are five prior periods that we’re talking about. One, three and six months later, the S&P was higher four out of five times,” Hickey told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday. “When we looked at when these prior streaks have ended and expectations have been ratcheted down enough, the market actually did quite well going forward.”

Quantitative analysts often struggle with a hidden problem called multicollinearity, which is the tendency of two variables that are closely correlated but have different effects. One example of multicollinearity is a person's height and weight. One way of addressing this problem is to isolate the "pure" effect of a signal from its "naive" multicollinear effect.

Here is an analysis of the pure and naive effects of the Economic Surprise Index (ESI) surge factor.

The full post can be found here.

Should you buy the breakout?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



An upside breakout
About a month ago, I suggested that the market was in need of a valuation reset, and outlined a price and forward P/E range for the market (see Powell's dilemma (and why it matters)). Since then, the index weakened into the top of my projected range, followed by an upside breakout from a month-long trading range.

Is it time to buy the breakout?

The full post can be found here.

How to trade foreign cross-currents

Mid-week market update: Global markets have taken a decided risk-on tone today on the news that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has withdrawn the controversial extradition bill. As well, the revolt in the British parliament has lessened the chances of a chaotic no-deal Brexit on October 31. On the other hand, the market was hit by some somber news earlier in the week, when the PMI reports revealed a slowing global economy.

In the meantime, US equity prices remain range-bound.

Should we interpret these developments as net bullish or bearish? The answer is...

The full post can be found here.

The rise of the Fear Bubble

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



The Fear Bubble
Ever since the NASDAQ Bubble burst, investors have been looking for additional bubbles to be wary of. The subsequent housing boom created a subprime bubble, which was facilitated by cheap financing, and wild leverage in the financial system that eventually led to a crisis. Now everyone is a bubble hunter.

We now have a new bubble, a Fear Bubble. The Fear Bubble can be found across all asset classes, and it can be seen in the diving 10-year Treasury yield; the deeply negative 10-year Bund yield and the growing count of negative yielding European fixed income instruments; and even the forex market, as evidenced by the cratering NZDJPY cross, which is a bellwether of the carry trade. The big surprise is US equities have held up reasonably well in this fearful environment.

The Fear Bubble is creeping into the equity market. Yahoo Finance reported that Goldman analysis found that funds are now increasingly defensive.

The average large-cap mutual fund is Underweight on U.S. firms with the highest sales exposure to China and has been gradually cutting exposure to these stocks during the past 18 months, according to fresh data from Goldman Sachs. Being Underweight is another way of Wall Street saying it expects the U.S. trade war with China to overly hurt companies with outsized exposure to the country and likely, and its stock prices.

Goldman notes that mutual funds are also Underweight semiconductors housed in the S+P 500 , another sector being damaged by the escalating trade war with China and also Huawei.

Meanwhile, hedge funds have also tilted more defensive with their portfolios. Goldman’s research shows hedge funds are Underweight information technology (trade exposed, too) and financials (also trade exposed — worsening trade conditions are causing the Fed to consider lower interest rates, which hurt bank profitability).

Tech overall is the largest net Underweight among hedge funds, Goldman says.

What should investors do, and how should they position themselves in light of this latest bubble?

The full post can be found here.

Home in the range

Mid-week market update: The stock market is continuing its pattern of sideways choppiness within a range, bounded by 2825 to 2930, with a possible extended range of 2790 to 2950.

My inner trader continues to advocate for a strategy of buying the dips, and selling the rips. On the other hand, my inner investor is inclined to remain cautious until we can see greater clarity on the technical, macro, and fundamental outlook.

The full post can be found here.

How not to push back against Trump

Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley penned an explosive Bloomberg op-ed today:

U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China keeps undermining the confidence of businesses and consumers, worsening the economic outlook. This manufactured disaster-in-the-making presents the Federal Reserve with a dilemma: Should it mitigate the damage by providing offsetting stimulus, or refuse to play along?

If the ultimate goal is a healthy economy, the Fed should seriously consider the latter approach.

Dudley ended the op-ed by abandoning the normal apolitical stance of a (former) Fed official and picking sides [emphasis added]:

I understand and support Fed officials’ desire to remain apolitical. But Trump’s ongoing attacks on Powell and on the institution have made that untenable. Central bank officials face a choice: enable the Trump administration to continue down a disastrous path of trade war escalation, or send a clear signal that if the administration does so, the president, not the Fed, will bear the risks — including the risk of losing the next election.

There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.

Wow! What were they drinking at Jackson Hole? Maybe Dudley is angling for a job at the Bundesbank.

The full post can be found here.