I am similarly intermediate-term bullish. Though at this point, I am just trying to survive October without any significant drawdowns.
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Survive October
I am similarly intermediate-term bullish. Though at this point, I am just trying to survive October without any significant drawdowns.
Sunday, October 6, 2024
Thinking the unthinkable: Israel-Iran War
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
The drumbeats of war
Oil prices have risen in response to rising tensions in the Middle East, but the year-over-year change is still negative. While war isn’t in our base-case scenario, investing is about pricing risk. I argue that the market is underpricing the risk of a conflict.
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, October 5, 2024
A powerful buy signal, with caveats
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Welcome to October surprise season
Sunday, September 29, 2024
The winners and losers from central bank stimulus
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Stimulus!
Saturday, September 28, 2024
Is the Fed ahead or behind the curve?
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
An October stall?
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, September 22, 2024
S&P 500 breakout or fake-out?
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Bearish (Last changed from “neutral” on 06-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A difficult decision
Technical analysts face a difficult decision. The stock market is exhibiting strong positive price momentum, but in the face of a seasonally weak period for stocks.On one hand, the S&P 500 just staged an upside breakout from a cup and handle formation, which is a highly bullish pattern.
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, September 21, 2024
Soft landing: What could possibly go wrong?
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
FOMC decision: A lesson in managing expectations
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, September 15, 2024
What if the Magnificent Seven are done?
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Bearish (Last changed from “neutral” on 06-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A Hindenburg warning
Saturday, September 14, 2024
The slow march to fiscal dominance
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Why the correction may not be over
Sunday, September 8, 2024
Trading the seasonal weakness
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 20-Aug-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A pre-election roadmap
I pointed out before that the stock market is approaching a period of seasonal weakness and the pullback is appearing roughly on cue. September is historically weak but the bearish impulse usually occurs in the second half of the month, but I regard seasonality as a climate forecast while market analysis is more indicative of the daily weather.
Here is my rough roadmap for the period before the U.S. election.
Saturday, September 7, 2024
Sector leadership review: Bear market vibes?
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
So much for the prelude (to a correction)
Sunday, September 1, 2024
Prelude to a correction
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 20-Aug-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Glass half full?
Is the glass half full or half empty? Is breadth back?
The S&P 500 continues to test a key resistance level. While the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose to an all-time high, the small-cap Russell 2000 is struggling below its all-time high.
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, August 31, 2024
LBO insights: Why these deep value stocks have become even cheaper
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
Risk budgeting ahead of NVIDIA's earnings report
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, August 25, 2024
Bullish momentum vs. bearish seasonality
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 25-Jul-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Negative seasonality ahead
Now that the rally off the early August low appears to be stalling, what are the odds of a re-test of the August lows?The accompanying chart from Jeffrey Hirsch of Almanac Trader shows that the stock market pattern in 2024 has closely followed the historical election year seasonal pattern. We are about to enter a period of negative seasonality until late October. Is this a sign the S&P 500 could weaken back to its early August low?
Here are the bull and bear cases.
The full post can be found here.