Monday, February 29, 2016

How to trade the Brexit referendum

I have tried to refrain from comment on the Brexit referendum vote until the situation had settled down a bit. Now that the campaign is in full swing, it`s time to consider how the markets might react as we approach the June 23 vote.

CNBC recently summarized the debate this way:
  • First, the economy, and whether positives like free trade would exist outside of EU membership, and whether negatives like excess regulation would make a meaningful difference if removed.
  • Second, migration of workers, and whether this helps offset Britain's poor demographics, or acts as an excess strain on the welfare system.
  • And third, sovereignty; is Britain ruled by the members of Parliament in Westminster elected last May by British voters, or by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels?
The full post is available at our new site here.

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