Wednesday, May 1, 2019

A resilient advance

Mid-week market update: It is always a challenge to make a technical market comment on an FOMC announcement day. Market signals are unreliable. The initial market reaction can be deceptive, and any move reversed the next day after some somber second thought. In addition, today is May Day, and a number of foreign markets are closed, which deprive traders of additional signals from overseas.

With those caveats, I can make a general observation that the advance off the Christmas Eve low has been remarkable and resilient. A historical analysis from Steve Deppe shows that years that have begun with four consecutive monthly advances since 1950 have resolved bullishly, with only one single exception (N=14).

Oddstats also pointed out that 2019 was the fifth best start to the year.

If these small samples of history are any guide, the stock market should be considerably higher by year-end, unless you believe this is a repeat of 1971, based on Steve Deppe's analysis, or 1987, based on Oddstats' data.

The full post can be found here.

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