Monday, September 30, 2019

What to watch for in Friday's Jobs Report

BLS will be publish the September Jobs Report this Friday. This report will be important for a number of reasons, and it will answer some key questions for investors and policy makers.

First, the unemployment rate has been troughing. If history is any guide, a rising unemployment rate after a trough has been signals of recessions. This was documented in the Sahm Rule, which was developed as a way to trigger automatic stabilizers and a real-time recession signal.

The Sahm Rule triggers a signal "When 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 pct points". A similar technique is also used at iMarket Signals as a recession warning. Currently, there is no recession in the forecast.

The full post can be found here.

No comments: