Monday, March 9, 2020

OK, I'm calling it...

While I may be jumping the gun on my model readings, I'm calling a recession.

Remember when oil prices tanked in the second half of 2014? The economy experienced a shallow industrial recession in 2015.

While history doesn't repeat but rhymes, the price war that erupted over the weekend between Russia and OPEC is another threat to the growth outlook. Combined with the already fragile state of the economy from the coronavirus induced supply chain slowdown, it is difficult to see how the US economy can avoid a recession. George Pearkes at Bespoke came to a similar conclusion (via Business Insider).

The full post can be found here.

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