The recovery scenario

The San Francisco Fed recently created a Daily News Sentiment Index, which is derived 16 major newspapers. In the space of a few weeks, market psychology has turned from "the market is going to retest the March lows" to "the Fed is supporting prices, valuation doesn't matter, the economy is recovering, - Buy".

Regular readers are well aware of my increasing cautiousness about taking equity risk (see The 4 reasons why the market hasn't seen its final lows and The bull case and its risks). While the economic recovery thesis is emphatically not my base case scenario, its' time to conduct a review for investors and traders who would like to take that walk on the Dark side. How should investors position for an environment driven by Fed liquidity, and improving COVID-19 news. Even if you are cautious, these recovery candidates offer signposts of the market's perception of the economic recovery theme.

The full post can be found here.