My 2020 report card

Now that 2020 has come to an end, it's time to deliver the Humble Student of the Markets report card. While some providers only highlight the good calls in their marketing material, readers will find both the good and bad news here. No investor has perfect foresight, and these report cards serve to dissect the positive and negative aspects of the previous year, so that we learn from our mistakes and don't repeat them.

2020 was a wild year for equity investors. The S&P 500 experienced 109 days of high volatility days during the year, as measured by daily swings of 1% or more. Measured another way, the stock market had high volatility days 45% of the time in 2020, compared an average of 25% since 1990. This level of volatility was similar to a reading of 53% in 2009 and 41% in 2000.

Let's begin with the good news. The Trend Asset Allocation Model's model portfolio delivered a total return of 19.7% compared to 16.1% for a 60% SPY and 40% IEF benchmark (returns are calculated weekly, based on the Monday's close). Total returns from inception of December 31, 2013 were equally impressive. The model portfolio returned 13.8% vs. 10.6% for the benchmark with equal or better risk characteristics.

The full post can be found here.