Will the energy price surge cause a recession?

As energy prices surged around the world, I had an extensive discussion with a reader about whether the latest price spike could cause a recession. This is an important consideration for investors as recessions are equity bull market killers.

The evidence isn't clear. On one hand, every recession in the post-War period (shaded grey zones) has been accompanied by rising oil prices. On the other hand, interest rates were also rising in virtually all of the cases.

The full post can be found here.