Friday, August 12, 2022

Lessons from a study of past major market bottoms

The mood has changed on Wall Street. The WSJ declared last week that the NASDAQ is back in a bull market.

The number of "new bull market" stories have skyrocketed in recent days. Suddenly, chartists on my social media feed are full of "if this index rises to X, or this indicator gets to Y, we have a new bull market". 

I am skeptical of single-variable models. Instead, I offer a study of past major bear market bottoms using factor and macro analysis to see how current circumstances fit with the fresh bull story.

The full post can be found here.

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