Buy now, pain later

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral*
• Trading model: Bullish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

Still constructive 

Last week, I outlined seven reasons why traders should grit their teeth and buy. I reiterate my short-term bullish and intermediate-term cautious view of the stock market. Traders should continue to buy now, but be prepared for pain later.

The S&P 500 rallied strongly early in the week but gave up most of its gains as time passed. Friday's hot NFP report cratered stock prices and the index traced out a bearish island reversal, which is clearly visible on the hourly chart. The good news is the S&P 500 has nearly reached the measured downside target of its reversal pattern. In addition, the last hour was characterized by a morning star doji candle, which is a possible reversal pattern that needs to be confirmed by market strength Monday morning.

The full post can be found here.