How economic myopia is leading investors astray

I found this recent CNBC interview with former Obama CEA Chair Jason Furman on June 6 rather disturbing. Furman expressed the opinion that the Fed would need to raise rates by 50 basis points before the rate hike cycle is complete, though he believed that it would skip a hike at the June FOMC meeting. 

 

While headline inflation had been falling, core CPI hadn’t made any progress for several months, which is causing concern for the Fed.

This prompted a discussion of the level of unemployment needed to slow inflation to acceptable levels, which Furman estimated at 4.5–5.0% (which incidentally would trigger a Sahm Rule recession alert). The question arose, “Is such a level of unemployment politically palatable?”

Furman equivocated by saying that’s why you have a Fed that’s insulated from political pressure, but that was the wrong answer. Both the question and the reply demonstrated a level of economic myopia that’s sure to lead investors astray.

The full post can be found here.