Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Drifting and waiting for the NVIDIA report

Mid-week market update: After the market reaches its upper Bollinger Band, it isn't unusual at all for it to consolidate sideways and drift for a few days before making the next move. As the chart below shows, this has happened four other times (grey shaded boxes) in the last six months. The latest episode is the fifth.

The market rose in two of the four episodes and fell in the other two, so there are no apparent clues to future short-term market direction. That said, I have heard concerns about the VIX Index declining below the 12 level, which is historically low. But the VIX did not fall below its lower Bollinger Band, which would be an overbought signal for the market.

The most important difference between now and past instances is the pending earnings report from AI bellwether NVIDIA. As a reminder, the last time NVIDIA reported earnings, not only did the stock pop, the upside gap took the S&P 500 with it and the market didn't look back for weeks.

The full post can be found here.

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