Back to the soft landing

The latest BoA Global Manager Survey is a dramatic illustration of market anxiety. In July, 18% of respondents believed that a U.S. recession was the biggest tail risk. That figure surged to 39% in the August survey, which was taken August 2–8 right at the height of the market panic.

 
During the market panic, the market went from pricing in a soft landing to rising odds of a hard landing. About two weeks later, the consensus has shifted back to a soft landing, which should be friendly to risk assets.

Here is my macro assessment of the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the growth scare.

The full post can be found here.