How to Trade the AI Panic

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

  

   

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 31-Jul-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Letdown from the NVIDIA Party

The sense of disappointment was palpable. After the AI market leader reported its earnings, which beat expectations, CEO Jensen Huang characterized demand for its Blackwell chip as “off the charts”. The stock rallied but sellers appeared and pushed the broad market down.

A reader characterized Thursday’s market action as, “NVIDIA threw a party but nobody came”. Even before the NVIDIA report, sentiment had been deteriorating. While the Fear & Greed Index is an imperfect sentiment and market timing indicator, its readings have fallen to levels last seen during the “Liberation Day” panic in April. The key difference is fundamentals. The market weakness in April was attributable to fears that global trade might seize up and economic growth may crater. Today’s market weakness is driven mostly by psychology and not a significant change in fundamentals. Should you be stampeding to the exit because some investors are taking profits?
 

I believe sentiment has fallen to levels consistent with a tactical bottom.

 
 The full post can be found here.