The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Waiting for the gap fill
Sunday, November 17, 2024
2025 high conviction idea: Gold
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 19-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 15-Oct-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Why gold will beat stocks
These technical patterns argue for a bullish commitment to gold for 2025 and beyond for all investors in all major currencies from an asset allocation perspective.
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, November 16, 2024
Can Trump Make Equities Great Again?
Donald Trump promised to Make America Great Again. While he may have accomplished that task in the short run for U.S. stocks, can he do the same for all equities?
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
How far can the post-election rally run?
Mid-week market update: The latest BoA Global Manager Survey shows that institutions have stampeded into U.S. equities in the wake of Trump's victory. The apparent crowded long position is concerning from a contrarian viewpoint.
I had suggested on the weekend that it was time for the S&P 500 to pause and take a breather. The market duly consolidated and trade sideways this week. How far can the post-election rally run?
The full post can be found here.Sunday, November 10, 2024
How to trade the Trump euphoria rally
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 15-Oct-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A cloudy crystal ball
It begins with a price shock as everyone scrambles to assess the market implications. During this period, none of the stock picking factors worked because of the new information that isn’t reflected in the factors.
While the Trump victory doesn’t qualify as a disaster in the manner of Fukushima or 9/11, it does represent a discontinuous external shock to market expectations whose effects are difficult to quantify. While the direction of policy changes are known, the magnitude of their effects are difficult to estimate without knowing the exact details.
It is in that spirit I would assert the only guidance investors can rely on are market price signals, or technical analysis. That’s why it’s difficult to predict how the markets are likely to behave under the Trump Administration before he takes office.
My crystal ball is cloudy beyond a few weeks, but I can still take a look at the price response to the news.
Saturday, November 9, 2024
Europe, alone?
Lest we forget the sacrifices of many and the terrible carnage of both World Wars.
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
How to trade the post-election melt-up
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, November 2, 2024
A final update on the Trump Trade: Tail-risk assessment
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 15-Oct-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A Trump Trade update
- Trump Media & Technology Group: It’s a proxy for Trump enthusiasm as it’s the holding company for Truth Social, Trump’s social media vehicle.
- Domestic Revenue Stock ETF vs. S&P 500: One of Trump’s main platforms is to use tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.
- Inflation Expectations: Trump’s tariff policies are expected to be inflationary.
- Poland vs. Euro STOXX 50: Poland has been a surprise growth engine in the EU, but it neighbours Ukraine and the relative performance of its market is a measure of Ukrainian anxiety.
- Gasoline Price: Gasoline can be thought of as an anti-incumbent trade. Rising prices depress consumer sentiment and it’s negative for the incumbent.
Saturday, October 26, 2024
Revisiting the Trump trade
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 15-Oct-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
The Trump trade
The Trump trade seems to be making a comeback in the markets. While the betting markets have seen Trump's odds of winning rise and Harris' odds fall, it has been marred by suspicions of manipulation (see articles in WSJ and Financial Times). Less difficult to manipulate are the factors in the financial markets, shown in the chart below. Each of these charts is designed so that a rising line denotes rising favourability for a Trump victory.- Trump Media & Technology Group: It’s a proxy for Trump enthusiasm as it’s the holding company for Truth Social, Trump’s social media vehicle.
- Domestic Revenue stock ETF vs. S&P 500: One of Trump’s main platforms is to use tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.
- Inflation Expectations: Trump’s tariff policies are expected to be inflationary.
- Poland vs. Euro STOXX 50: Poland has been a surprise growth engine in the EU, but it neighbours Ukraine, and the relative performance of its market is a measure of Ukrainian anxiety.
- Gasoline Price: Gasoline can be thought of as an anti-incumbent trade. Rising prices depress consumer sentiment and it’s negative for the incumbent.
A focus on trade policy
The results of the latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey could be setting the tone for the market’s reaction to the U.S. election. Respondents are most concerned about changes in trade policy as a result of the election.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, October 23, 2024
What I am and what I am not worried about
Sunday, October 20, 2024
Some preliminary thoughts on Q3 earnings season
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Diversity wins
As the S&P 500 continues to grind upwards, it’s been led by a trio of sectors, financials, industrials and technology, which has becoming an emerging leader. I interpret this as a constructive sign, as the diversity of both value and growth stocks indicate the bull move.The full post can be found here.
Saturday, October 19, 2024
An ominous sign for stock returns?
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
A buy signal. but with a *
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, October 13, 2024
A buy signal setup
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Oct-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Did you buy Yom Kippur?
While I am near-term cautious on the stock market, I believe a strong upside breakout is just around the corner. You just have to be patient.
Friday, October 11, 2024
Near term volatility ahead, but don't fret
While the technical violations may only be temporary false breakdowns, these technical signals compel me to explore their asset return implications.
The full post can be found here.Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Survive October
I am similarly intermediate-term bullish. Though at this point, I am just trying to survive October without any significant drawdowns.
Sunday, October 6, 2024
Thinking the unthinkable: Israel-Iran War
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
The drumbeats of war
Oil prices have risen in response to rising tensions in the Middle East, but the year-over-year change is still negative. While war isn’t in our base-case scenario, investing is about pricing risk. I argue that the market is underpricing the risk of a conflict.
The full post can be found here.
Saturday, October 5, 2024
A powerful buy signal, with caveats
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
Welcome to October surprise season
Sunday, September 29, 2024
The winners and losers from central bank stimulus
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 19-Sep-2024)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Stimulus!