What Investors Should Be Thankful For

As Americans recover from their extended Thanksgiving feasts, they were faced with the news of skidding consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index weakened to levels just above the lows seen during the post-COVID expansion.

 
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Confidence, which was released in early November, was even worse.

Before turning too bearish, investors should be thinking about the silver linings in this dark macroeconomic cloud of weak consumer confidence. The S&P 500 is near record highs this Thanksgiving and there are several things that equity investors should be thankful for.

The full post can be found here.

One Down, Two to Go

Mid-week market update: My former Merrill Lynch colleague Fred Meissner of The Fred Report wrote on the weekend that "the yearend rally has started, and a trend following indicator...we primarily use for risk management to show that trends have turned positive on key indexes". From a purely technical perspective, I agree. The S&P 500 has begun an upper Bollinger Band ride. Past upper BB ride episodes has seen the index advance further, followed by a period of consolidation and mild pullback.

 

Is the pause in the advance in stock prices the end of the upper BB ride that signals an imminent pullback and consolidation? In the short run, there are three sources of volatility for the stock market. We just had the Fed decision today. This week, we will see several Magnificent 7 stocks report earnings. In addition, the market will see the results of the Trump-Xi meeting.

 

The full post can be found here.

It's Not Over Until the Iron Lady Sings

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below. 

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 31-Jul-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

The Trade War Continues

Even as the S&P 500 tests its rising trend line after the sudden trade war-related shock, we believe the risk of further stock price downdrafts isn’t over. The VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX Index, spiked above 100, indicating elevated levels of anxiety. If history is any guide, such conditions have seen market volatility and price pullbacks. 

By no means is the trade war over. Here are some reasons why.
 

The full post can be found here.  

25 or 50 Next Week?

Mid-week market update: The combination of the Quarterly Census Employment and Wages (QCEW) weakness and a soft PPI report has moved the market to expect to at least a quarter-point rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week. There are even whispers that the Fed may even move by a half-point, though the odds is only 10%.

 

  

New Deal democrat came to the dismal conclusion that QCEW may be signaling that there was no job growth at all this year. While bad news is good news for the bond market, is it good news or bad news for the stock market?

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.  

 

To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question

The purpose of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium isn’t to make decisions about the short-term direction of monetary policy, but to consider the long run implications of policy. It is in that spirit we consider the short- and long-run implications of Trump’s America First policies. 
 

The primary purpose of Trump’s policy initiatives is to reverse the multi-decade effects of globalization. Branko Milanovic’s landmark study showed that under globalization the main winners were the very rich and the emerging market middle class, while the developed economies’ middle class lost ground. Trump aims to reverse that trend. The question isn’t whether tariffs should be imposed or whether undocumented U.S. residents should be deported, but the trade-offs between the costs of those policies against the long-run effects on growth, inflation and productivity.

Consider the following thought experiment. A major earthquake devastates much of San Francisco and parts of California sinks into the sea. Thousands of the best and brightest in Silicon Valley are lost in the disaster. The NASDAQ opens up down -20% to -30% in the wake of the news. President Trump and the  Fed Chair appear on television to reassure the nation and the markets.

The Fed Chair states that the Fed is prepared to use any and all liquidity measures to ensure the orderly functioning of markets. President Trump offers the following points:

• America needs to look through this event as it’s a tremendous opportunity to rebuild. We are formulating a plan to develop property on the new waterfront.
• There will be plenty of new job opportunities. All of the positions formerly held by foreigners in Silicon Valley can now be filled by Americans.
• By the way, good riddance to all the liberals who populate California.

Trump’s response is a caricature, but here are my points. There is a well-known study which shows that nearly half of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children. Trump’s reshoring initiatives are aimed at returning low value-added manufacturing jobs that went offshore. Replacing Silicon Valley talent isn’t just a matter of numbers of workers, but the quality of worker matters too.
 

How are the markets likely to respond to messages broadly along these lines? Ben Graham once said that in the short run the market functions like a voting machine, which reflects the popularity of different assets. In the long run, it’s a weighing machine, which indicates the value of assets.

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.   

 

Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?

Q2 earnings season was supposed to be a key test of how the Trump tariffs would affect corporate earnings and margins. The coming week will see the bulk of the S&P 500 by weight report results. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign. Negative effects from tariffs seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Is the tariff’s bark worse than its bite?

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.   

 

The Trade War is dead! Long Live the Trade War!

The market is hiding a secret in plain sight. Ever since the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff panic, trade war tensions have been in retreat, and the S&P 500 has regained all of its losses and achieved fresh all-time highs. This has happened against a backdrop of continuing uncertainty over tariff levels imposed by the U.S. on its trading partners. The question is why.

That’s because despite all of the dire headlines about the imposition of a 25% tariff rate on Canada and 30% on Mexico and the European Union, the only trade war that matters is effectively over. China has won, and the stock market is rallying in relief.

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.   

 

Why "Sell America" isn't equity bearish

I have been fairly cautious in my U.S. equity outlook in these pages, but that doesn’t mean I am equity bearish. The accompanying chart shows the progress of different major regional stock markets priced in USD in the last 20 years. With the exception of China, whose stock market doesn’t reflect its economy, stock prices have risen in various degrees over that time period.

 
The top panel of the chart shows that S&P 500 has handily beaten global markets since the GFC and it has retreated back to the rising trend line. Conventional technical analysis calls for investors to buy the dip, with a stop loss just below the trend line. I argue for the Sell America trade of minimizing exposure to USD assets in a broadly diversified portfolio.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.    

 

Don't buy that TACO just yet

TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” in trade negotiations. Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong coined the term “TACO trade” as a colourful way of characterizing the Trump Put. When questioned by a reporter, Trump turned livid when he learned what TACO stood for.

It is in that context when, later in the day, the three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade unanimously ruled against the Trump Administration in VOS Selections v U.S. and struck down a whole range of tariffs by citing a lack of authority. The most equity bullish outcome would have been Trump taking this legal exit ramp to retreat from his trade war. Instead, he doubled down with the following social media message, possibly egged on by the TACO question. What was even more disturbing was the inclusion of Pepe the frog (my highlight), which was an image appropriated by White supremacists during the 2016 election.

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.     

What the Trade Détente Means for Investors

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent didn’t return from Switzerland and proclaim “Trade peace in our time” while waving a piece of paper. Instead, the interim deal represented a signal toward a trade détente and the acknowledgement that China is an equal in global trade with the U.S.

The agreement. lowered the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% for 90 days. China reciprocated by lowering its tariffs on U.S. imports to 10%. Shipping bookings skyrocketed in response and the deal took the tail-risk of a recession off the table.
 

It’s no surprise that the stock market rallied.
 

Before you become overly excited, analysis from the Budget Lab at Yale found that the average effective tariff rate is now 17.8% pre-substitution for high-priced imports and 16.4% post-substitution, which are still very high by historical standards.

Here’s what the trade détente means for investors.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.    

Why the Detox Isn't Over

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the economy may need to undergo a detox period before it returns to more stable growth. Since that warning, stock prices sharply pulled back and the VIX Index spiked to above 60, which are levels not seen since the 2024 bottom, the COVID Crash and the GFC. Related sentiment indicators, such as the term structure of the VIX, inverted, indicating high levels of fear. The market subsequently experienced a Zweig Breadth Thrust, which is an indicator of price momentum consistent with market bottoms. Is the detox over and is the bull back?

I don’t think so.

The stock market isn’t the economy, but it is nevertheless related to the economy. Investors need to distinguish between the likely economic effects of events and the market reaction to the events. The initial VIX spike to over 60 in the wake of the “Liberation Day” announcement was consistent with the blinding end-of-world fear that occurs at market bottoms. Usually, the subsequent bottom has been accompanied by the reduction or elimination of tail-risk by policy makers. This time, the tail-risk of a recession is very real and there are no signs of significant policy mitigation.

Here are some historical lessons from past fear spikes.

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.   

An American Emerging Market crisis?

Something unusual happened recently. During risk-off episodes, U.S. economic pain has been cushioned by falling bond yields and an appreciating USD, which translates into lower interest rates and more consumer spending power.
 

The risk-off episode that began in early April, which was just after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, saw the opposite. The price of the 10-year Treasury note fell more when denominated in all major currencies except the Chinese yuan. Foreigners were fleeing USD assets and Treasury paper, meaning the pain was amplified.

Had the panic not been stemmed, it was starting to look like a classic emerging market crisis.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.    

Known unknowns, and unknown unknowns

Ahead of the Second Gulf War, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously referred to “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” when responding to a question about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
 

Fast forward to 2025, investors have to contend with a series of known unknowns and unknown unknowns as they consider their investment policy in an environment where global economic uncertainty has skyrocketed to an all-time high.
 

Here are some known unknowns to consider:

• What are the objectives of Trump’s negotiations and how far is he willing to go?
• When will the chaos subside enough that companies can plan and respond to the changes in tariff regimes?
• Will the U.S. economy fall into recession?

Here are some unknown unknowns to consider:

• Have the USD and Treasury securities permanently lost their position as safe havens?
• How much damage has been done to the post-World War II security and financial architecture?

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.  

A game theory analysis of the trade war

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Anna Wong published a chart outlining the impact of Trump’s tariff pivot. Trump raised tariffs on China and cut the “reciprocal tariff rate” to 10% for all others, except USMCA members Canada and Mexico, for 90 days. The resulting weighted tariff rate is not substantially different from the “Liberation Day” rates and it remains roughly comparable to the tariff rates of the Smoot-Hawley era. More worrisome is the higher tariff rate on consumer goods under the new regime, which spells stagflation, or higher prices combined with lower growth.

 

 
How will the trade war end? Let’s game theory this out.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates. 

Crafting investment policy in an America First world

What should investors make of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which was characterized as “worst than the worst-case scenario”? Instant analysis from several sources shows that the weighted average tariff rate is now higher than the rates from the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. Trump claims that his tariffs will raise $6 trillion over the next decade, which amounts to the largest tax hike in U.S. history.

I pointed out last week that Trump’s abrupt shift in U.S. policy is making the world undergo a dramatic regime shift in investment environment (see Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power). The key big picture question is how investors should formulate investment policy under these new circumstances.

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

Here's what's more important than the tariff announcement

Mid-week market update: The market approached Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement all beared up. Trading desk surveys indicate that most retail and institutional market participants had reduced risk coming into the announcement, with outright bears outnumbering the buy-the-dip crowd by 7%.

 

 

While the ultimate outcome of the Trump tariffs will move markets, there's something even more important than the announcement.

The full post can be found here.

Uncharted investor waters: From soft to hard power

Markets were rattled by policy under Trump 1.0 by his unpredictable and chaotic nature. Trump 2.0 promises to be more of the same. Other than the transactional nature of Trump’s deal making, what’s his ultimate end game?

It’s to undo the effects of globalization. The political backdrop can be explained by Branko Milanovic’s famous “elephant chart”. The graph charts percentile of global income distribution, or how rich you are on a global scale, on the x-axis, and the changes in real income between 1998 and 2008 on the y-axis. The winners of globalization were the emerging market countries whose population were lifted out of poverty and the elite of the industrialization countries, who engineered globalization. The losers were population in subsistence economies and the middle class of the industrialized countries, which has sparked populist backlashes such as the Make America Great Again movement, the AfD in Germany, the National Front in France, and so on.

Trump rose to power by tapping on the deep political discontent of globalization of MAGA Americans. Here’s what this means for investors.

The full post can be found here.

Bessent's challenges in 2025 and beyond

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared in an interview with Fox Business a surprising target. Bessent and the Trump Administration were mainly focused on lowering the 10-year Treasury yield and Trump is not calling the Fed to lower short-term rates. He also reiterated the Trump Administration’s objective of raising energy output and the extension of the TCJA tax cuts.
 

Here is the short-term report card. Since the Fed announced its jumbo half-point rate cut in September, the 2-year Treasury yield, which is a proxy of the market’s expectations for the terminal Fed Funds rate, has risen, and so has the 10-year yield. The 2s/10s yield curve steepened, indicating stronger growth expectations.
 

Since the election, the 2-year yield is roughly flat and the 10-year yield is up marginally. The bond market has shrugged off anxiety over the possible effects of a trade war, when President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, which was later walked back, and a 10% tariff on China. More importantly, the U.S. eliminated a de minimis tariff exception on the import of Chinese goods below $800. An entire industry had grown up to exploit this loophole by sending small individual packages to exploit this rule.

 
So far, so good. The bottom panel of the chart summarizes Scott Bessent’s main challenge in controlling the 10-year yield. The MOVE Index, which is the VIX of the bond market, had fallen since the election and readings are relatively low by historical standards. Bessent’s main task is to calm the bond market and keep anxiety levels low.

 

The full post can be found here.

A preview of the Sino-American Trade War 2.0

China’s leadership was caught off-guard in 2016 because few people expected Trump to win the election. This time, Beijing has had plenty of warning, and it is far better prepared for Trade War 2.0.
 

The key difference is the divergence in the path of economic growth, as signaled by the bond market. Chinese 10-year yields have plunged below 2%, which is a sign of a dramatic slowdown. By contrast, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen, which reflects concerns over a heightened fiscal deficit and rising inflation.

 
In the face of economic weakness, China seems to be preparing for Trade War 2.0 on a different dimension of belligerence. China has embraced von Clausewitz’s famous quote on war: “War is merely the continuation of politics by other means.”

Investors should prepare for greater newsflow volatility and rising geopolitical risk in the months ahead.

The full post can be found here.

How the G7 meeting exposes the risks for 2024

Two weeks ago I highlighted how history shows that the stock market only bottomed after recessions have begun (see How to spot the stock market bottom) and a recession is likely on the way in H2 2023. If that is the case, U.S. equities should bottom at some point this year and a recovery should be in full swing by 2024. 

However, the agenda of G7 Summit in Hiroshima highlights the geopolitical risks to the 2024 recovery and the threat to global growth in 2024 and beyond.
 

 

The full post can be found here.