Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Still more upside potential in the NatGas vs. Oil trade

Back in early December I posted about the oil and natural gas divergence in price and sentiment. Natural gas initially declined against crude oil after that post but has since risen about 10% on a relative basis.

A update of the Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC shows the relative bull case for natural gas vs. crude oil remains intact. The "fast money" large speculators continue to be have a crowded short in natural gas and giving a contrarian bullish signal. On the other hand, the signal from the COT data for crude oil is still neutral.

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