Friday, October 5, 2012

China dodges a bullet?

I came upon a couple of data points that seem to indicate that Chinese growth has bottomed and is in the process of a turnaround. First, Also Sprach Analyst points out that Macau gaming revenues, which are highly correlated with Chinese growth, ticked up in September.

In addition, FT Alphaville highlighted a research report by Standard Chartered that concluded that Chinese property market is turning around,

In fact, they say, sales are picking up so much — and unit completion has been so slow — that inventory depletion could be a problem in the second half of 2013, at least in the top-tiered cities.

Meanwhile, land sales are holding steady and possibly rising (the local governments will be relieved), and financing appears to be easier:

My inner bull is breathing a sigh of relief. These developments are suggestive of a nascent turnaround in the Chinese economy.

Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

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