Wednesday, November 30, 2016

A glass half-empty

Mid-week market update: About two weeks ago, I wrote a post indicating that market had focused on the positives of a Trump presidency (see The Trump Presidency: A glass half-full?). Now it seems that market psychology is subtly shifting to a glass half-empty view.

It is very revealing when the new nominees for the key commerce ans treasury cabinet posts make market soothing noises and stock prices barely move. Josh Brown's reaction to Steven Mnuchin as the Secretary of the Treasury and Wilbur Ross as Secretary of Commerce is probably fairly typical of the market:
Good morning. Just wanted to check in briefly to voice my approval for the Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary picks announced by the Trump transition team this morning. They’re both highly accomplished and capable people who’ve held senior roles within businesses, even if they don’t have government experience.

To my knowledge, neither is looking to eject homosexuals, Jews or brown people from the country, so that’s a step in the right direction. I don’t believe that either has an agenda against women or takes money directly from Russian banks or posts frog memes on Twitter. Neither pick is a sitcom star from the 1980’s or one of the President-Elect’s children.
The hourly SPX chart below tells the story of a lack of positive reaction to good news. Such market reaction points to short-term bullish exhaustion.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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