Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The market has spoken!

Mid-week market update: Today's market action should be a lesson to me to change model rankings based on overnight futures prices, which trades in a thin and volatile market (see What now?). To set the record straight, the Trend Model did not move to a neutral, or risk-off reading based on today's market action. The change last night was based on ES futures falling 3-4% at the time of writing.

One common refrain made by politicians who concede elections is, "The people have spoken!" In this case, the market has spoken and it has decided to adopt the bullish view that Trump is a reflationary president, rather than the bearish view of Trump the protectionist. This interpretation was made evident by the rally in the cyclically sensitive industrial metals, even as gold prices fell.

From a technical viewpoint, the stock market's behavior is showing a path to an uber-bullish outcome. As the chart below shows, the market is showing the combination of a fear unwind, indicated by the normalization of the VIX term structure from an inverted state, and two days where TRIN has dipped below 0.50, which is a signal of a buying stampede.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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