Monday, May 1, 2017

Finding risk and opportunities from the BAML and Barron's Big Money polls

You may think that institutional money managers run in herds, but that is not necessarily true. Different managers have different mandates that color their views. As well, their geographical base can also create differences in opinions in how their view their world and markets.

Barron's published its quarterly Big Money poll of institutional money managers on the weekend. The Barron's survey sample consists of US based managers. Another well known poll, the BAML Fund Manager Survey, is published monthly and surveys global institutions. A comparison of these two polls gives us a chance to find some opportunities and risks in the market.

The US equity market comprise roughly half the weight of global equity indices, and the opinions of American managers are undoubtedly important. By contrast, the BAML sample also survey shows the views of non-US managers whose opinions can, on occasion, reveal key differences. By analyzing the degree of agreement, astute investors can find opportunities, as well as understand the blind spots of each group.

A remarkable consensus
First of all, there was some remarkable agreement in the opinions of both groups. Both are bullish on equities. The Big Money poll showed a clear progression on equity bullishness.

Similarly, the BAML sample showed a similar rising level of bullishness. Normally, a bullish stampede would set off contrarian warnings of caution. However, as the chart below shows, sentiment rose in the last year from relatively low levels and they are not excessively high. Therefore it is probably too early to get cautious just yet.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

Our Sale in May event
Announcing our "Sale in May" event! Get $1 off plus an extra month free off the first year of an annual subscription*. Use the coupon code May2017 at checkout.

* Offer is only available to the first 100 to sign up and expires May 31, 2017. Subscription date extension will be made after order processing.

No comments: