Barron's published its quarterly Big Money poll of institutional money managers on the weekend. The Barron's survey sample consists of US based managers. Another well known poll, the BAML Fund Manager Survey, is published monthly and surveys global institutions. A comparison of these two polls gives us a chance to find some opportunities and risks in the market.
The US equity market comprise roughly half the weight of global equity indices, and the opinions of American managers are undoubtedly important. By contrast, the BAML sample also survey shows the views of non-US managers whose opinions can, on occasion, reveal key differences. By analyzing the degree of agreement, astute investors can find opportunities, as well as understand the blind spots of each group.
A remarkable consensus
First of all, there was some remarkable agreement in the opinions of both groups. Both are bullish on equities. The Big Money poll showed a clear progression on equity bullishness.
Similarly, the BAML sample showed a similar rising level of bullishness. Normally, a bullish stampede would set off contrarian warnings of caution. However, as the chart below shows, sentiment rose in the last year from relatively low levels and they are not excessively high. Therefore it is probably too early to get cautious just yet.
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