How worried should you be about China?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral*
• Trading model: Bullish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.



The elephant in the room
I pointed out recently that the latest BAML Fund Manager Survey shows that institutional managers have been stampeding into emerging market (EM) stocks exclusive of the other equity markets around the world (see An opportunity in EM stocks?). However, some EM countries are more equal than others. The chart below shows that while EM stocks have begun to outperform global equities (bottom panel), China continues to lag compared to other major markets like Brazil and India.

For investors, China is becoming the elephant in the room. The country accounts for roughly one-third of global GDP growth, and its economic growth rate is decelerating. Ken Rogoff stated in Davos that he thinks China is hitting the debt wall:

Harvard professor Ken Rogoff said the key policy instruments of the Communist Party are losing traction and the country has exhausted its credit-driven growth model. This is rapidly becoming the greatest single threat to the global financial system.

"People have this stupefying belief that China is different from everywhere else and can grow to the moon," said Professor Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

"China can't just keep creating credit. They are in a serious growth recession and the trade war is kicking them on the way down," he told UK's The Daily Telegraph, speaking before the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"There will have to be a de facto nationalisation of large parts of the economy. I fear this really could be 'it' at last and they are going to have their own kind of Minsky moment," he said.

How worried should you be about China?

The full post can be found here.




A Special Announcement
We told you so. We told you the market was going down.

Here is the track of Humble Student of the Markets, where we are neither perma-bulls nor perma-bears. Most recently, we have been correctly bullish since the correction of 2015, and turned cautious in August 2018 (see Market top ahead? My inner investor turns cautious, August 5, 2018).

We were also timely at the 2009 bottom. We issued a call to buy beaten up low-priced stocks with high insider buying a week before the ultimate bottom (see Phoenix rising? February 24, 2009).

The out-of-sample record of our model trading portfolio in 2018 was up 42.9%. For more details, see our weekly updates here.

The recent market volatility has brought a flood of new subscribers, and we are announcing a price increase, and a number of other changes in order to better control the growth of our community. However, all subscribers will be grandfathered at their old prices.

The following changes will occur as of March 1, 2019:

• The annual subscription price will rise from US$249.99 to US$356 US$365 per year.
• The monthly subscription price will rise from US$24.99 to US$35.60 US$36.50 per month.
• The 24-hour subscription will no longer be offered.
• The embargo period for free content will change from two weeks to four weeks.

Remember, if you subscribe now, you will be grandfathered at the old price - permanently.