Wednesday, June 5, 2019

How far can this rally run?

Mid-week market update: I had been making the point for the past week that this market is oversold and ripe for a relief rally, and the rally finally occurred. From a technical perspective, the market rallied through a downtrend line, which is a sign that the bulls have seized control of the tape. However, the bulls shouldn't overstay their welcome. Until the trade tension overhang is lifted, this market is likely to remain volatile and range-bound. One characteristic of this uncertainty are the numerous gaps that can be found on the hourly chart.

Nevertheless, how long can this rally last, and how far can it run? I considered a number of historical studies to arrive at some estimates, and here is what I found.

The full post can be found here.

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