A (deceptive) long-term buy signal

Mid-week market update: It is month-end, and the day after an FOMC meeting. Regular readers may recall that I have been monitoring the monthly MACD indicator for a long-term buy signal. Troy Bombardia recently highlighted what happens when the SPX flashes a long-term buy signal. Subsequent one-year returns have been almost all positive.

The verdict is in, the index has flashed a long-term MACD buy signal.

While the signal is constructive for the long-term outlook, let me temper your enthusiasm.

The full post can be found here.