Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Will the Fed still cut after the trade detente?

The results out of the Trump-Xi summit were slightly better than market expectations. Not only do we have a trade truce, a suspension of escalation, but Trump promised that American companies can sell to Huawei.

Now that we have achieved a detente of sorts, the CME's Fedwatch Tool shows the market is still discounting a 100% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, and a 21.4% chance of a half-point cut.

Is this for real? Will the Fed disappoint the markets?

The full post can be found here.

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