Monday, August 5, 2019

USDCNY at 7? It's not you, it's me

The market has adopted a risk-off tone today because the Chinese yuan rose above the rate of 7 to 1 to the USD. The move was positioned as retaliation for Trump`s new tariffs. In addition, China has halted all purchase of American agricultural goods.

What did you expect? The controlled depreciation of CNY is not unexpected. The chart below of the Chinese yuan ETF shows that it had been unusually strong compared to the trade weighted dollar. Viewed in this context, the PBOC devaluation in 2015 was fully justified. Today's fall is reflective a decision by the PBOC to stop leaning against the market winds.

To put it differently, the broader problem isn't CNY weakness, but USD strength.

The full post can be found here.

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