Saturday, June 25, 2022

Bullish omens from the factor gods

Recession fears are rising everywhere, both on Wall Street and in Washington. Fed eonomist Michael T. Kiley formulated a recession model based on unemployment rates. The probability of a recession over the next four quarters is now over 50%, but the economy has never avoided a recession when readings were this high.

The New York Fed's DSGE model, which does not represent its official forecast, puts the chances of a hard landing at 80%. There are numerous other examples. That's just two of them. 

Recessions are supposed to be negative for stocks, right? Yes, most of the time. Even as recession anxiety rises, the omens from the sector and factor gods are telling a different story for the stock market.

The full post can be found here.

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