Saturday, June 11, 2022

In search of the bullish catalyst

I have pointed out before that the last time the 10-year Treasury yield was at these levels, the S&P 500 was trading at a forward P/E of 14-16. The current forward P/E is 16.8, which is slightly above that range. In order for stock prices to rise, at least one of two things has to happen. Either the discount rate has to fall, which expands P/E ratios, or earnings have to rise.

Since global central bankers are engaged in a tightening cycle, the prospect of falling rates is off the table. In that case, what's the outlook for earnings?

The full post can be found here.

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