In case you missed it, the 10-year Treasury yield fell and broke a technical support level even as the 3-month T-Bill yield rose. This left the 10-year to 3-month yield spread inverted further, which has historically been a strong recession signal.
The 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield spread has inverted before every recession. If history is any guide, a slowdown is just around the corner.
The stock market and other risk assets are facing a fire and ice challenge. Fire in the form of still overly hot inflation readings and ice in the form of a deteriorating economy.
The full post can be found here.
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