Sunday, April 9, 2023

Why I am fading the latest breadth thrust

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.


 
 
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading 
model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
 
 The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Neutral*
  • Trading model: Neutral*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on Twitter at @humblestudent and on Mastodon at @humblestudent@toot.community. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
 
 
About that breadth thrust
I have had several discussions with investors over the meaning of the recent Zweig Breadth Thrust (see Interpreting the Zweig Breadth Thrust Buy Signal). A ZBT is a rare condition that occurs when the market moves from an oversold to an overbought condition within 10 trading days. There have been seven out-of-sample signals since Marty Zweig wrote his book, Winning on Wall Street. The stock market was higher a year later in every instance, though it did pause and pull back on two occasions, which occurred against Fed tightening cycles. I think that the latest signal will resolve in a pullback.

 

The full post can be found here.


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