In many ways, politicians are worse than magazine covers as contrarian indicators. Magazine editors focus on an economic issue when it moves from page 20 to page 1 in the public’s mind. By that time, it’s been largely discounted by the market. Politicians are worse. They follow the trends raised by magazine editors and are even more reactive.
It was therefore of great interest that President Joe Biden kicked off his re-election by running on his economic record, which he called “Bidenomics”, which is composed of a grab bag of his past legislative initiatives such as infrastructure, renewable energy and semiconductors. The main theme is a focus on an economic revival for the middle class by emphasizing the addition of 1.3 million jobs and the achievement of a historically low unemployment rate.
The Bidenomics focus raises a contrarian risk that the President is touting his economic record just when recession odds are elevated. Consensus expectations for a recession from a variety of surveys of economic forecasts call for a recession to begin in H2 2023.
Did Biden just top tick the economy?
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