Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Electoral and market expectations

Ezra Klein has an (unscientific) sample of pundits with their views of the electoral outcome for the Presidential election and there are 11 calls for an Obama victory and 8 calls for a Romney victory. My favorite forecaster is intrade.

Notwithstanding the argument that polls are where people voice their opinions and prediction markets are where people put their money on the line, I was convinced of the prediction markets when in 1980, the polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Reagan and Carter, while the betting books in London showed about a two-thirds chance of a Reagan win. The rest is history.

As I write this, intrade is showing a 73.5% chance of four more years for Obama:

...and the key swing states breaking for Obama. If Romney can't even hold VA, then he is truly toast:

Here is my thought of the day. With opinions so divided and assuming that intrade forecast is correct, how badly will the markets be "surprised" by an Obama win?

Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The problem with Intrade is that it is outside the U.S. and doesn't have a lot of participation by U.S. citizens.