Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Is good news now good news, or bad news?

Mid-week market update: What should we make of the stock market now that the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 3% level? Should we pay attention to the JPM Asset Management historical analysis which stated, "When yields are below 5%, rising rates have historically been associated with rising stock prices"?

Should we pay attention to the latest BAML Fund Manager Survey, which concluded that the median manager is not overly worried until the 10-year yield crosses 3.5%?

Up until now, good (economic) news has translated to good (stock market) news, and bad news has been bad news. At some point, market perception will shift to putting greater weight on the bearish factors behind higher growth because of the expectation of a more hawkish Fed response, over the bullish factors behind better earnings growth.

Is the market at that turning point when good news is bad news, and bad news is good news?

The Q1 GDP report this Friday provides an important litmus test of whether that inflection point has been reached. Supposing that GDP growth comes in at better than expectations. Will stocks rally because of higher growth expectations, or drop because higher growth will pressure the Fed to raise rates at a faster pace? Similarly, what if growth came in at below expectations?

The full post can be found at our new site here.

No comments: