IS a trade deal imminent?

On Friday, Trump said that a trade deal with China was "potentially very close" (via CNBC):

President Donald Trump on Friday said that a long-negotiated trade deal with China is “potentially very close” following reports that an agreement might not be reached until next year.

Trump was speaking on one of his favorite television programs, “Fox and Friends,” the morning after House Democrats wrapped up a second week of public impeachment hearings.

“The bottom line is, we have a very good chance to make a deal,” Trump said.

Over the weekend, CNBC further reported "China plans stronger protections for intellectual property rights". In addition, Chinese official media said that both sides are "very close to a phase one deal". Are these signs that the logjam is broken? Are we on the verge of a "Phase One" deal?

Why haven't the odds of a Trump-Xi meeting moved on PredictIt? This contract is a good, albeit illiquid, proxy for the odds of a "Phase One" deal.

The full post can be found here.


Don't forget our Thanksgiving $2 Sale!
We are proud of our Trend Asset Allocation Model, which showed a steady record of improving performance and reducing risk against a passive 60/40 benchmark in a simulation using actual signals.

We are announcing our Thanksgiving Sale $2 sale, where you can get 14 months for the price of a 12 month annual subscription, plus $2 off! Just use the coupon code Thanksgiving2019 when you sign up for an annual subscription (two month adjustment will be made within 24 hours after checkout). This offer expires at midnight, Pacific Time, on US Thanksgiving weekend (December 1, 2019). Subscribe here.

Existing subscribers who would like to extend their subscription for 14 months at the price of 12 at their current subscription price, please drop me a note by email.