Monday, November 25, 2019

IS a trade deal imminent?

On Friday, Trump said that a trade deal with China was "potentially very close" (via CNBC):
President Donald Trump on Friday said that a long-negotiated trade deal with China is “potentially very close” following reports that an agreement might not be reached until next year.

Trump was speaking on one of his favorite television programs, “Fox and Friends,” the morning after House Democrats wrapped up a second week of public impeachment hearings.

“The bottom line is, we have a very good chance to make a deal,” Trump said.
Over the weekend, CNBC further reported "China plans stronger protections for intellectual property rights". In addition, Chinese official media said that both sides are "very close to a phase one deal". Are these signs that the logjam is broken? Are we on the verge of a "Phase One" deal?

Why haven't the odds of a Trump-Xi meeting moved on PredictIt? This contract is a good, albeit illiquid, proxy for the odds of a "Phase One" deal.

The full post can be found here.

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