Wednesday, March 17, 2021

There are no more bulls and bears, here's why

Mid-week market update: If you hadn't known that it was FOMC day, you would have looked at the closing market diary and shrugged. The S&P 500 closed only +0.3% on the day. Beneath the surface, however, a lot has been going on in the past few weeks.

Analysts who try to call the direction of the US equity market are facing an especially difficult time as they are encountering a bewildering array of both bullish and bearish sentiment readings. That's because the stock market has bifurcated into a growth stock market and a value stock market. There is no more single stock market anymore.

This chart of the Russell 1000 Value to Russell 1000 Growth ratio tells the story. After value stocks opened a "Vaccine Monday" runaway gap last November, value stocks have made their way higher against growth stocks. The ratio became extended and exhibited a negative 5-day RSI divergence in early January. Both value and growth stocks proceeded to pull back, with value the underperformer. The ratio exhibited another negative RSI divergence in early March. This time, growth stocks rallied with a vengeance while value stocks were mostly flat. The Russell 1000 Growth Index skidded but recovered and its advance is currently testing technical resistance defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

This account of internal rotation underscores my point that this is a tale of two markets. Indeed, it was the best of times and the worst of time for growth and value. There are no more bulls and bears. You can be a value bull and growth bear, or a growth bull and value bear.

The full post can be found here.

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