Saturday, March 6, 2021

Are you positioned for the post-Great Rotation era?

Is the US stock market in a bubble? Yes and no, according to Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. Using a proprietary technique to create a "bubble indicator", Dalio concluded that "the aggregate bubble gauge is around the 77th percentile today", compared to a 100th percentile reading in 1929 and 2000.

Dalio qualified his analysis with some parts of the market are indeed very bubbly, but others are not.
There is a very big divergence in the readings across stocks. Some stocks are, by these measures, in extreme bubbles (particularly emerging technology companies), while some stocks are not in bubbles. 
Credit Suisse came to a similar conclusion with their US Exuberance Index. The number of companies with price-to-sales over 10 have surged, but readings are not at the levels seen during the dot-com peak.

At the same time, the market is undergoing a secular shift from growth to value. Here are some important implications for investor portfolios in the next market cycle.

The full post can be found here.

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