Saturday, September 25, 2021

Time for a mid-cycle swoon?

The S&P 500 fell as much -4% from its all-time high in Evergrande panic pullback last week. Is the recent weakness just typical seasonal weakness or something more serious? The intermediate-term breadth looks disconcerting. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average (dma) had been at the 90% level which indicates a "good overbought" sustained advance. This indicator has retreated below the 75% level. There have been four similar episodes in the last 20 years. Three of the four occasions resolved themselves with substantial drawdowns while the remaining one saw the market trade sideways in a choppy way.

The odds don't look good. The market may be setting itself for a mid-cycle swoon.

The full post can be found here.

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