Friday, November 25, 2022

A cyclical rebound mirage?

I highlighted a widening gulf between the technical and macro outlook in August (see "Price leads fundamentals", or "Don't fight the Fed"?). At the time, the technical indicators were wildly bullish because of strong price momentum, while the macro outlook was cautious. The macro view eventually won out.

A similar divide may be appearing again, albeit not as wide. Technical internals has been pointing to a shift in leadership to value and cyclical sectors, indicating the emergence of cyclical green shoots. Further analysis of technical internals, as well as the macro picture, indicate that hope of a cyclical rebound may be an illusion.

Here's why.

The full post can be found here.

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