Known unknowns, and unknown unknowns

Ahead of the Second Gulf War, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously referred to “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” when responding to a question about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
 

Fast forward to 2025, investors have to contend with a series of known unknowns and unknown unknowns as they consider their investment policy in an environment where global economic uncertainty has skyrocketed to an all-time high.
 

Here are some known unknowns to consider:

• What are the objectives of Trump’s negotiations and how far is he willing to go?
• When will the chaos subside enough that companies can plan and respond to the changes in tariff regimes?
• Will the U.S. economy fall into recession?

Here are some unknown unknowns to consider:

• Have the USD and Treasury securities permanently lost their position as safe havens?
• How much damage has been done to the post-World War II security and financial architecture?

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

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