Monday, June 25, 2018

How Trump's midterm strategy heightens market risk

A recent Axios story featured an interesting political perspective on Trump's possible strategy for the midterm elections:
An odd paradox in defining this moment in politics: The more President Trump does, says and tweets outrageous things, the more his critics go bananas and the better he does in the polls.
Indeed, Gallup's tracking poll of presidential approval has been steadily rising for much of this year. CNBC also reported that a majority of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy for the first time.

Axios went on to state that this strategy is risky because it is entirely dependent on energizing his support base:
The rise in Trump’s numbers, and the shrinking Democratic advantage in House races, are reinforcing Trump’s worship of his own instincts on policy.
  • Except many of these choices may make his reelection even more dependent on his worshipful base, and less appealing to swing voters.
  • It’s a circular political strategy that relies on ignoring independent voters, and assuming they won’t turn out.
  • It creates a narrow, treacherous path to reelection.
Call it a short-term gain for medium term pain electoral approach that creates significant market risk.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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