The verdict is in, the index has flashed a long-term MACD buy signal.
While the signal is constructive for the long-term outlook, let me temper your enthusiasm.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
A (deceptive) long-term buy signal
Mid-week market update: It is month-end, and the day after an FOMC meeting. Regular readers may recall that I have been monitoring the monthly MACD indicator for a long-term buy signal. Troy Bombardia recently highlighted what happens when the SPX flashes a long-term buy signal. Subsequent one-year returns have been almost all positive.
The verdict is in, the index has flashed a long-term MACD buy signal.
While the signal is constructive for the long-term outlook, let me temper your enthusiasm.
The full post can be found here.
The verdict is in, the index has flashed a long-term MACD buy signal.
While the signal is constructive for the long-term outlook, let me temper your enthusiasm.
The full post can be found here.
Monday, July 29, 2019
A hawkish cut ahead?
As we look ahead to the July FOMC meeting this week, market expectations of additional rate cuts have moderated. The market is discounting a 100% chance of a quarter-point cut this week. It also expects an additional quarter-point cut at the September meeting, and a third rate cut by year-end.
The better than expected Q2 GDP report just made the Fed's job a lot more complicated.
The full post can be found here.
The better than expected Q2 GDP report just made the Fed's job a lot more complicated.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
Is this how a currency war begins?
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Sleepwalking into a currency war?
As we look ahead to the FOMC meeting next week, it may be the start of a synchronized global easing cycle. The ECB signaled a dovish tone last week at its meeting. The EURUSD exchange rate weakened, and the USD Index strengthened. From a technical perspective, the USD is exhibiting bullish patterns on multiple time frames. The index staged an upside breakout on an inverse head and shoulders formation on the daily chart, with an upside measured upside target of about 99.10. Conversely, EURUSD has broken down in a head and shoulders, with a downside target of about 110.
It is also forming a possible bullish cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart, with an upside target of 107.70 to 108.00 on a breakout.
In addition, the trade weighted USD has also formed a possible cup and handle pattern that stretches back to 2002, with bullish implications.
The global nature of the seemingly coordinated central bank easing begs the question of whether monetary policy is inadvertently starting a cycle of competitive devaluation. Is this how a currency war starts?
We examine this thesis from the viewpoints of the three main currency and trading blocs, Europe, China, and the US.
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Bearish*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Sleepwalking into a currency war?
As we look ahead to the FOMC meeting next week, it may be the start of a synchronized global easing cycle. The ECB signaled a dovish tone last week at its meeting. The EURUSD exchange rate weakened, and the USD Index strengthened. From a technical perspective, the USD is exhibiting bullish patterns on multiple time frames. The index staged an upside breakout on an inverse head and shoulders formation on the daily chart, with an upside measured upside target of about 99.10. Conversely, EURUSD has broken down in a head and shoulders, with a downside target of about 110.
It is also forming a possible bullish cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart, with an upside target of 107.70 to 108.00 on a breakout.
In addition, the trade weighted USD has also formed a possible cup and handle pattern that stretches back to 2002, with bullish implications.
The global nature of the seemingly coordinated central bank easing begs the question of whether monetary policy is inadvertently starting a cycle of competitive devaluation. Is this how a currency war starts?
We examine this thesis from the viewpoints of the three main currency and trading blocs, Europe, China, and the US.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Caution: Upside potential limited
Mid-week market update: Even as the bears were all lined up to push prices down last Friday, the bulls managed to make a goal-line stand and retain control of the tape. The index is tracing out a triangle pattern and testing resistance, while exhibiting negative RSI divergences.
In addition, other cautionary signs can be found elsewhere. While I would not necessarily discount an upside breakout to further fresh highs, current conditions argue for limited upside potential.
The full post can be found here.
In addition, other cautionary signs can be found elsewhere. While I would not necessarily discount an upside breakout to further fresh highs, current conditions argue for limited upside potential.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, July 21, 2019
Will stock prices surge on a Fed rate cut?
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
A well-telegraphed rate cut
As we look forward to the FOMC meeting on July 30-31, the market is discounting a 100% chance of a rate cut, with the probability of a half point cut at 22.5%.
Analysis from Ned Davis Research reveals that an initial rate cut and no recession has historically lit a rocket under stock prices.
What will happen this time? Should investors be piling into equities in anticipation of a market surge?
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Bearish*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
A well-telegraphed rate cut
As we look forward to the FOMC meeting on July 30-31, the market is discounting a 100% chance of a rate cut, with the probability of a half point cut at 22.5%.
Analysis from Ned Davis Research reveals that an initial rate cut and no recession has historically lit a rocket under stock prices.
What will happen this time? Should investors be piling into equities in anticipation of a market surge?
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
A market on a knife edge
Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been tactically cautious on stocks in the last two weeks, but I don't want to give the impression that I am wildly bearish. In fact, the SPX is on the verge of a long-term buy signal, marked by the positive monthly MACD reading. Should the index close at or close to current levels by month-end, it will have flashed a buy signal that has shown to be highly effective for intermediate and long term investors.
Before anyone becomes wildly bullish here, some caution may be warranted.
The full post can be found here.
Before anyone becomes wildly bullish here, some caution may be warranted.
The full post can be found here.
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Questions for Judy Shelton and gold standard supporters
President Trump has nominated Judy Shelton as one of the candidates for the open seats on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors. While Shelton is a controversial nominee, she is less problematical than the previous two, Herman Cain and Stephen Moore.
While I certainly understand the reasoning behind a gold-backed currency, which is a way to control inflation, I have some difficult questions for Shelton and other supporters of a gold standard.
The full post can be found here.
While I certainly understand the reasoning behind a gold-backed currency, which is a way to control inflation, I have some difficult questions for Shelton and other supporters of a gold standard.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, July 14, 2019
The path to a European Renaissance
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
In search of the eurozone buy signal
I had a number of discussions with readers in the wake of last week's publication, Europe: An ugly duckling about to be a swan. The topics revolved mainly around further justification for buying into Europe, when US equities had performed so well in the last 10 years. In short, the questions were:
The gulf in valuation, as measured by the Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE), provides some clear reasoning for American investors to diversify outside their home country. As well, European stocks look cheap relative to their own history. But that is not the entire story.
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Bearish*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
In search of the eurozone buy signal
I had a number of discussions with readers in the wake of last week's publication, Europe: An ugly duckling about to be a swan. The topics revolved mainly around further justification for buying into Europe, when US equities had performed so well in the last 10 years. In short, the questions were:
- What is the valuation for Europe, and
- Finding a bullish catalyst for their relative revival.
The gulf in valuation, as measured by the Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE), provides some clear reasoning for American investors to diversify outside their home country. As well, European stocks look cheap relative to their own history. But that is not the entire story.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Stay cautious
Mid-week market update: I highlighted a tactical trading sell signal from the VIX Index on the weekend. The VIX had fallen below its lower Bollinger Band,, indicating an overbought market, and mean reverted above the band last Friday.
As a reminder, the historical study of such episodes since 1990 show negative returns bottom out roughly a week after the signal, which would be this coming Friday.
The full post can be found here.
As a reminder, the historical study of such episodes since 1990 show negative returns bottom out roughly a week after the signal, which would be this coming Friday.
The full post can be found here.
Monday, July 8, 2019
The limits of central bank powers
With interest rates at or close to the zero lower bound, here are a couple of examples of limits to the power of central bankers.
Will the Fed cut rates?
Let us begin with the Fed. After the blow-out Jobs Report, the bond market reacted violently and there were murmurs as to whether the Fed will still cut rates. Let me lay the first concern to rest. Historically, the Fed has telegraphed its interest rate decisions. With the market expectations of at least a quarter-point cut at the next FOMC on July 30-31, the Fed is unlikely to surprise the market.
The full post can be found here.
- The Federal Reserve: Will it still cut rates after the strong jobs report?
- The European Central Bank: What are the limits and price of monetary stimulus?
Will the Fed cut rates?
Let us begin with the Fed. After the blow-out Jobs Report, the bond market reacted violently and there were murmurs as to whether the Fed will still cut rates. Let me lay the first concern to rest. Historically, the Fed has telegraphed its interest rate decisions. With the market expectations of at least a quarter-point cut at the next FOMC on July 30-31, the Fed is unlikely to surprise the market.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, July 7, 2019
Europe: An ugly duckling about to be a swan?
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Buy the ugly duckling?
In the past few weeks, these pages have been all trade war, all the time. While that was not the original intent of this publication, headlines have conspired to turn the focus on the Sino-American relationship. Now that an uneasy truce is in place, it is time to switch gears and turn the spotlight on other unexplored parts of the market.
Finance literature since the Great Financial Crisis has been filled with the imagery of swans. Black swans. White swans. Grey swans. What is missing is the ugly duckling that grew up to be a swan. More importantly, what if an investor could identify an ugly duckling before it becomes a swan?
I have identified such a candidate. The chart below shows the relative performance of US stocks against the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) in black, and the Euro STOXX 50 against ACWI in green. While there is no question that US stocks have been the winners, eurozone equities are in the process of making a broad saucer based relative bottom, and may be poised for a period of outperformance. The relative bottoming process is especially remarkable in light of the current environment of global trade uncertainty, which may be a signal of investor capitulation and the inability to respond to bad news.
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Buy the ugly duckling?
In the past few weeks, these pages have been all trade war, all the time. While that was not the original intent of this publication, headlines have conspired to turn the focus on the Sino-American relationship. Now that an uneasy truce is in place, it is time to switch gears and turn the spotlight on other unexplored parts of the market.
Finance literature since the Great Financial Crisis has been filled with the imagery of swans. Black swans. White swans. Grey swans. What is missing is the ugly duckling that grew up to be a swan. More importantly, what if an investor could identify an ugly duckling before it becomes a swan?
I have identified such a candidate. The chart below shows the relative performance of US stocks against the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) in black, and the Euro STOXX 50 against ACWI in green. While there is no question that US stocks have been the winners, eurozone equities are in the process of making a broad saucer based relative bottom, and may be poised for a period of outperformance. The relative bottoming process is especially remarkable in light of the current environment of global trade uncertainty, which may be a signal of investor capitulation and the inability to respond to bad news.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
New highs are bullish, but...
Mid-week market update: It is said that there is nothing more bullish a stock or an index can do other than to make new highs. Both the DJIA and the SPX made fresh all-time highs today. While that may appear to be bullish, there are plenty of warning signs beneath the surface that this advance may not be entirely sustainable.
One of the missing ingredients in this rally is momentum. The SPX is exhibiting a negative 5-day RSI divergence, indicating flagging momentum even as the index made new highs. In addition, the VIX Index fell below its lower Bollinger Band, indicating an extremely overbought condition.
The full post can be found here.
One of the missing ingredients in this rally is momentum. The SPX is exhibiting a negative 5-day RSI divergence, indicating flagging momentum even as the index made new highs. In addition, the VIX Index fell below its lower Bollinger Band, indicating an extremely overbought condition.
The full post can be found here.
Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Will the Fed still cut after the trade detente?
The results out of the Trump-Xi summit were slightly better than market expectations. Not only do we have a trade truce, a suspension of escalation, but Trump promised that American companies can sell to Huawei.
Now that we have achieved a detente of sorts, the CME's Fedwatch Tool shows the market is still discounting a 100% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, and a 21.4% chance of a half-point cut.
Is this for real? Will the Fed disappoint the markets?
The full post can be found here.
Now that we have achieved a detente of sorts, the CME's Fedwatch Tool shows the market is still discounting a 100% likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, and a 21.4% chance of a half-point cut.
Is this for real? Will the Fed disappoint the markets?
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, June 30, 2019
A framework for a Sino-American relationship
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
A framework for Sino-American relations
The anticipation is over. The Trump-Xi summit is done. Did you think that things would be so easy, and everything could be solved in a single meeting?
The market came into weekend knowing that there was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the summit, but the consensus was both sides would agree to a trade truce. Mytrade war factor, which measures the relative performance of companies with pure domestic revenues, was complacent about the prospects of a trade war.
The option market behaved in a similar way. The ratio of 9-day implied volatility (VXST) to one-month volatility (VIX) exhibited only mild signs of anxiety, and levels were not high compared to recent history.
The market was indeed fortunate that the outcome was slightly better than market expectations. Not only did both sides agree to a truce while discussions continue, and Trump has lifted a temporary ban on on American companies selling equipment to Huawei.
Notwithstanding the short-term results from the summit, here are some issues that investors and policy makers should think about in terms of the future Sino-American relations.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
A framework for Sino-American relations
The anticipation is over. The Trump-Xi summit is done. Did you think that things would be so easy, and everything could be solved in a single meeting?
The market came into weekend knowing that there was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the summit, but the consensus was both sides would agree to a trade truce. Mytrade war factor, which measures the relative performance of companies with pure domestic revenues, was complacent about the prospects of a trade war.
The option market behaved in a similar way. The ratio of 9-day implied volatility (VXST) to one-month volatility (VIX) exhibited only mild signs of anxiety, and levels were not high compared to recent history.
The market was indeed fortunate that the outcome was slightly better than market expectations. Not only did both sides agree to a truce while discussions continue, and Trump has lifted a temporary ban on on American companies selling equipment to Huawei.
Notwithstanding the short-term results from the summit, here are some issues that investors and policy makers should think about in terms of the future Sino-American relations.
- If this is a war, what costs is America willing to bear?
- Is this a trade war, or something more?
- How much support can the Fed offer, and what are the implications of the Fed's actions?
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
What's up with gold?
Mid-week market update: Gold staged an upside breakout from a multi-year base, which got a lot of technicians excited. The point and figure chart upside targets range from about 1630 to the mid-1700s, depending on how the parameters are set.
Before you pile in and buy, let me educate you on the causes of this move, so that you can make a reasoned decision. Think of this as the case of a dog and his tail. Gold is the tail, and it is wagging very rapidly. Figure out why before taking action.
The full post can be found here.
Before you pile in and buy, let me educate you on the causes of this move, so that you can make a reasoned decision. Think of this as the case of a dog and his tail. Gold is the tail, and it is wagging very rapidly. Figure out why before taking action.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, June 23, 2019
Caution: Market is mis-pricing trade talks risk
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Signs of complacency
I have been writing in these pages that the market faced two key sources of near-term volatility. The first was the uncertainty of the FOMC decision. Approaching the meeting, the market was expecting three quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first occurring in July. The Powell Fed delivered a dovish hold. The bond market reacted with a bull steepening, and stock prices soared.
The next key event is the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Osaka. In the wake of the Fed decision, the ensuing equity market euphoria is seemingly discounting a successful conclusion to the trade talks. Our trade war factor, which is measured by the relative performance of an ETF of Russell 1000 stocks with pure domestic revenues, is indicating a dramatic decline in trade tensions.
While I have no idea how the trade talks will be resolved, some caution is warranted as the market appears to be mis-pricing trade talks risk.
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
Signs of complacency
I have been writing in these pages that the market faced two key sources of near-term volatility. The first was the uncertainty of the FOMC decision. Approaching the meeting, the market was expecting three quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first occurring in July. The Powell Fed delivered a dovish hold. The bond market reacted with a bull steepening, and stock prices soared.
The next key event is the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Osaka. In the wake of the Fed decision, the ensuing equity market euphoria is seemingly discounting a successful conclusion to the trade talks. Our trade war factor, which is measured by the relative performance of an ETF of Russell 1000 stocks with pure domestic revenues, is indicating a dramatic decline in trade tensions.
While I have no idea how the trade talks will be resolved, some caution is warranted as the market appears to be mis-pricing trade talks risk.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Monetary Policy Catch-22
Mid-week market update: As I expected, the Fed unveiled a dovish hold at its June FOMC meeting, as predicted by Tim Duy:
However, this sets up a difficult Catch-22 for Fed monetary policy makers.
The full post can be found here.
* Colloquial translation: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure".
The Fed is likely to turn more dovish this week and open up the possibility of a rate cut. I think they still need more data to justify a rate cut. Another jobs report alone the lines of the May report would go a long way toward supporting that cut in July.Out with "patience", and in with "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion"* as the new mantra of monetary policy. The greenback feel, and the bond market reacted with a bull steepening. Interest rates fell across the board, but the yield curve steepened.
However, this sets up a difficult Catch-22 for Fed monetary policy makers.
The full post can be found here.
* Colloquial translation: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure".
Monday, June 17, 2019
Fun with quant: MS Business Conditions edition
Marketwatch recently reported that Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index had deteriorated to levels last seen during the 2007-08 financial crisis. Wow! Is this an alarming signal, or contrarian?
The full post can be found here.
The full post can be found here.
Sunday, June 16, 2019
What would happen if the Fed cuts rates?
Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
An FOMC meeting preview
As we look ahead to the FOMC meeting next week, the market has priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for 2019, with the first cut occurring at the July meeting.
A rate cut is not unexpected, as the bond market has pushed the Treasury yield curve down so far that only the 30-year Treasury bond is trading above the current Fed Funds target. It is likely too early for the Fed to cut rates at its June meeting next week, but if the market is discounting a July cut, the Fed is likely to signal either it is either in agreement with that expectation, or correct the market.
Rather than debate whether the Fed should cut rates, I consider the scenario of what might happen if it were to proceed with a July rate cut. What are the consequences for economic growth, and the stock market? After all, the track record of Fed Funds futures in forecasting the actual trajectory of interest rates has been less than stellar.
The full post can be found here.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.
An FOMC meeting preview
As we look ahead to the FOMC meeting next week, the market has priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for 2019, with the first cut occurring at the July meeting.
A rate cut is not unexpected, as the bond market has pushed the Treasury yield curve down so far that only the 30-year Treasury bond is trading above the current Fed Funds target. It is likely too early for the Fed to cut rates at its June meeting next week, but if the market is discounting a July cut, the Fed is likely to signal either it is either in agreement with that expectation, or correct the market.
Rather than debate whether the Fed should cut rates, I consider the scenario of what might happen if it were to proceed with a July rate cut. What are the consequences for economic growth, and the stock market? After all, the track record of Fed Funds futures in forecasting the actual trajectory of interest rates has been less than stellar.
The full post can be found here.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
A dead cat bounce, or something more?
Mid-week market update: I wrote last week that the market gods were favoring the equity bulls, The relief rally would likely last about another week (see How far can this rally run?), but the market is likely to remain range-bound until the trade tensions are resolved.
What's next?
The full post can be found here.
In conclusion, until these trade tensions are resolved, expect the market to remain range-bound and move in reaction to the latest headlines. This suggests that traders should adopt a position of “buy the dips” and “sell the rips”. If history is any guide, I expect the current rally to peter out some time next week, with the most probable peak occurring about mid-week.The market has rallied substantially since last Wednesday. It is now mid-week, and the market appears to be stalling at resistance. Is this simply a test and pullback to test resistance, or something worse?
What's next?
The full post can be found here.
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